TikTok, Data, and the Deadline That Won’t Stick
This isn’t just a tech story. It’s a story about data, democracy, and power.
This issue of Social Signals was written to a playlist Spotify made for me called Mallgoth Mix.
This week, I was in NYC and used ChatGPT to select my entree and dessert at a Michelin Guide-recommended restaurant, and can you believe the server said nobody had ever done that? It was an excellent meal.
Also, finally climbed to the top of the Vessel at Hudson Yards. It was dizzying and cool.
Anyway, lots to talk about today, let’s get into it! -Greg
“This isn’t just a tech story. It’s a story about data, democracy, and power.”
That was my closing line yesterday during a live segment on Fox 9, where I joined Maxx Fuller and Adam Lorens to discuss the never-ending TikTok ban saga.
The September 17 deadline has passed. The app is still live. There is now a framework deal in play. So let’s look at where things stand now and what matters for brands and creators.
Where things stand now
In 2024 Congress passed the PAFACA law which required ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations or face a ban. The original deadline was January 19, 2025. That date passed without required action. Then came the September 17, 2025 deadline. That also passed without TikTok shutting down.
Instead, on September 16 and 17 the U.S. announced a framework deal with China to allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. under U.S. control. The terms are not finalized. Then on September 16 Trump issued an executive order delaying enforcement of the divestiture law until December 16, 2025.
🎶 Just kicking that can down the road! 🎶
This isn’t just a story about apps or algorithms. It’s a case study in political performance. The TikTok “ban” became a tool to reward allies, signal toughness on China, and, ultimately, consolidate influence over one of the most powerful media platforms in culture. It was never really about a shutdown. It was about a shakedown.
Main elements of the framework deal
U.S. companies will own about 80 percent of TikTok U.S. operations. ByteDance will keep about 19.9 percent.
The U.S. entity will have a U.S.-dominated board with at least one member designated by the U.S. government.
Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz are among the lead investors in the consortium. Oracle will likely handle U.S. user data, possibly through Texas facilities.
The algorithm and other intellectual property of ByteDance will be licensed to the U.S. version under terms being negotiated with China. That licensing is creating concern among U.S. lawmakers who fear it could allow ongoing influence by ByteDance or the Chinese government.
What’s Really at Stake
Control over the algorithm = control over culture. This is more than content moderation. It’s about who gets to shape attention, trends, and values for the next generation.
Rise of ideologically aligned tech/media empires. With players like Ellison involved across both infrastructure (Oracle) and entertainment (Paramount, possibly WBD), the line between platform and publisher is eroding fast.
Precedent for government-influenced platforms. The U.S. is essentially setting up a structure similar to China’s (one with embedded government oversight). That’s a long-term shift that could affect all social platforms.
Meanwhile, M2 is Looking More Realistic
As I shared with you in Social Signals weeks ago (ahem, reminder that paid subscribers get full access to the archives and fund my Meta Smart Glasses Fund), M2 is the reported internal codename for a U.S-only version of TikTok that ByteDance is building as a contingency to comply with the divest-or-ban law.
Reports say it would run on a separate codebase with its own recommendation algorithm and U.S. data storage, likely with Oracle handling infrastructure, so American users could be migrated to this app if required. TikTok publicly denied building a stand-alone U.S. app, but multiple outlets have covered this. It’s called internally M2.
Why Brands and Creators Should Care about the TikTok Ban Story This Time…
If the U.S. controls TikTok operations more directly under “M2” or a U.S.-only version of the app, the following implications matter:
Increased political oversight: The U.S. government will likely have stronger levers of control. Content moderation policies, algorithm licensing, data storage, board oversight will all come under more direct scrutiny. That could mean more demands on platforms to align with national security concerns or political priorities. I think this aspect isn’t getting enough attention.
Greater risk and variability in content reach and monetization: If the algorithm is under U.S. oversight or licensing rules require certain constraints or compliance, what content is recommended, what goes viral, what is suppressed may shift. Creators and brands could see swings in reach depending on how their content aligns with changing guidelines or policy pressures. See bullet above!
Brand alignment becomes more political: With more visible U.S. ownership and oversight, brands may need to be more cautious about what content and creators they associate with. Audiences and regulators may treat platform moves as political acts. Brand safety definitions will probably change. You know how Twitter isn’t brand safe anymore? The chances that happens on TikTok/M2 will increase.
Audiences May Fragment the Platforms (More): We may start to see platform fragmentation not by audience but by ideology. Brands could be forced to pick not just where their audience is, but what values that platform now reflects. Welcome to the new social Cold War.
Data governance and transparency will matter more: Where user data is stored, who has access, what rules apply to algorithms will all be under closer review. As I talked about in the interview, Meta is getting more of a free pass on this, so we’ll see.
What May Actually Happen
Another delay! Even though ByteDance is retaining a minority stake and algorithm licensing is in place, lawmakers have raised concerns that this may undercut the intent of the law passed in 2024. They say full separation of algorithm control and foreign influence was mandated and not accept any of these solutions. Also, this entire process is hypocritical, so it may just not matter and get auto-stamped. Clearly we know that whatever the President wants will most likely get passed or not challenged.
TikTok as it exists stays.
The M2 TikTok clone app launches and US accounts are auto-migrated.
The M2 TikTok clone app launches and brands have to manually sign up and try to migrate content + community.
TikTok closes US access and no clone app launches. Everyone shifts their scrolls to YouTube and Reels and whatever startup app like Red Envelope sparks to the surface during the freak-out.
What Brands and Creators Should Do Now
Plan for 2026 as if TikTok or M2 will exist. No matter how the app evolves or if there’s a new one, for most brands currently on TikTok, you’ll probably want to plan to support and/or migrate and support. And if you need to migrate your brand to a new platform, you’re going to want to be ready to act quickly!
Read the fine print! Depending on your brand and its data structure (financial services, state or local government, healthcare), the new deal terms may reopen Pandora’s Box around algorithm licensing, data storage, privacy, and consumer protections.
Reset assumptions. What worked under the old TikTok may not work under the new structure. Test content, test formats, measure reach carefully. Ads and payments may also significantly change.
Evaluate your channel mix and diversify your platforms. This is an evergreen tweet. You should be doing this frequently, and certainly annually. Some brands and creators may not want to depend heavily on TikTok until the operating model is fully stable.
Be sure to factor in moderation, compliance, political risk and brand safety. What is acceptable or high visibility content today might become controversial under new oversight. Be prepared for changes in rules around speech, data privacy, and moderation. I think the platform could get pretty rocky.
Made You Look! Will There Be Another Ban Delay?
Oh yeah, probably.
But as I mentioned in the interview, all of the buzz and headlines about the future of TikTok are intentionally pulling focus away from what is actually happening elsewhere. For example, if you have tried to buy something in TikTok Shop recently, you have already seen the effects of tariffs on prices and availability. These kinds of changes are hitting consumers and creators today, while the ownership debate drags on in the background and is an easier thing to talk about (for some reason).
There is also the question of whether China will even agree to the current framework deal. And don’t get me started how hypocritical this all is. Tencent in China holds a stake in Reddit and nobody talks about it!! Meta, Snap, and YouTube continue to gather and monetize data with less oversight than ever. Twitter is…. a chaos goblin. Yet TikTok is treated as the singular national security risk.
In social platforms, there’s always a tradeoff: what consumers give up in data for what they get in value. Most people still don’t realize how big that exchange really is, and although I’m pessimistic the leaders in Washington are really thinking about consumers, maybe this will help raise awareness at least a little for some.
Anyway, keep it on your plan for next year, but also plan to keep an eye on it. Just like always. You know what social is all about? It’s about change. And it’s going to change again.. -Greg
📊 Chart of the Week
YouTube accounts for 13.4% of US TV watchtime, ahead of all other TV distributors, per Nielsen. Not all of that time is going to creator content, but much likely is: 60.1% of US social users engage with creators on YouTube, per our survey with impact.com.
📢 See Greg Speak
PRSA Iowa's OctoPRfest Conference: Reboot Required: Rewiring Strategy for Today’s Cyborg Audiences, Des Moines, IA - October 9 (TICKETS)
Metro State University: Digital Marketing lecture, St. Paul, MN - November 18
University of Minnesota: Mastering Communications Leadership class lecture, Minneapolis, MN - December 9
Plus two brand side workshops and keynotes!
Interested in Greg speaking at your event? Hit me up.
😎 Sign Up for a Free Meta Ray-Ban Display Demo
Meta used Connect to debut consumer smart glasses with a built-in heads-up display and a neural wristband for gesture control, alongside a sportier Oakley model.
You probably don’t think you want smart glasses still. But smart, hands-free capture and glanceable notifications are creeping into daily life, which shifts creative toward POV video, live translation, and on-the-go utilities. We didn’t used to think we would carry a phone everywhere we went, and then certainly not use a phone instead of a computer for work.
Today’s smart glasses — including these new Meta Ray-Ban Displays — are pricey and bulky. But I’m still bullish on smart glasses adoption by 2030. And these are a big step.
Regardless of where you fall on the adoption curve, I strongly suggest you sign up for a demo in your local market and go try them. If you wear glasses, bring your prescription and they’ll pop in lenses so you can get the full demo.
⚡️ Social Signals
LinkedIn is testing Duolingo English proficiency scores and an AI-powered interview simulation tool to help users showcase verified skills and prep for job interviews with real-time feedback. It’s a clear signal that digital profiles are evolving from static resumes to dynamic, AI-enhanced portfolios that demonstrate job readiness.
Instagram is expanding its ephemeral image-sharing feature “Shots,” a one-and-done photo message tool that feels like a mashup of BeReal and Snapchat, while TikTok is testing a similar feature called “PhotoSwap.” Both platforms are betting that stripped-down, in-the-moment sharing will spark more authentic engagement and revive that old-school social spontaneity. Also, I’m pretty active on BeReal if you want to add me: @gregswan
YouTube unveiled new AI-powered tools: Veo 3 video generation with sound, Edit with AI for instant first drafts, and Speech-to-Song to remix dialogue into music. The result: expect a flood of AI-infused Shorts, from surreal remixes to polished drafts, as generative tools become the default for creators. The kids may say they hate AI, but it’s going to be in LOTS of content moving forward.
YouTube’s first exclusive NFL game cleared a big bar. Did you watch it? The Chargers-Chiefs Brazil kickoff drew 17.3 million global viewers on YouTube and leaned into creator-driven presentation. It was agonizing to watch! The commentary was terrible. Mr. Beast’s cannon stunt was delayed. But you know what? We should expect more premium sports to pair broadcast rights with creator formats as leagues chase younger, global audiences.
TikTok added voice notes and richer media in DMs for 1:1 and groups, tightening the loop from public discovery to private conversation. Measurement will need to account for more “dark social” forwarding and service interactions that never leave TikTok.
New research shows a clear split in how people use AI: ChatGPT is leaning personal and exploratory (writing, advice, information-seeking), while Claude is becoming the go-to for work tasks like coding, research, and automation. Rather than head-to-head competition, the studies suggest OpenAI and Anthropic are carving out complementary niches—consumer assistant vs. workplace co-pilot.
Thread of the Week: Subtle iPhone 17 marketing via a Center Stage horizontal selfie during the Emmy Awards.
Silly Site of the Week: I’m Not a Robot
Insta of the Week: Daily Tile Cleaning
Keep going!
Greg